Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. @SophLebo Democrats lead in enough states to barely maintain control of the US Senate. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. ).1 Specifically, were looking at the 15 most competitive races Democrats lead in enough states to barely maintain control of the US Senate. In Alaskas House, Senate and gubernatorial races, its fairly likely that well end up with one Democratic candidate but two or three Republican candidates following the Aug. 16 primaries. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. Sophia Lebowitz is a video producer at FiveThirtyEight. What happens if we have a 2016 or 2020 like polling error? When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. 1. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. FiveThirtyEights 2020 Senate and House models are mostly unchanged from 2018, so the large majority of the methodological detail below will still apply. Based on a scrutiny of the polls in the Utah race (i.e. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Based on a scrutiny of the polls in the Utah race (i.e. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Counts of Democratic seats include two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Are Republicans in trouble in the Senate? Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. As we get closer to the midterms, Galen Druke zooms in on the Senate races in Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean) they project Lee has a 93% chance of winning. Pennsylvania was supposed to be the Democrats insurance policy. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. FiveThirtyEights Senate and House forecasts are based on myriad factors, with changes in one race often influencing odds in another. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Furthermore, the well-respected Nate Silver and his website of FiveThirtyEight.com analyzes surveys conducted in every federal race in the country. Two measures help capture how important a state and its voters will be in determining which party controls the next Senate: Tipping-point chance is the probability that a race will decide whether the Democrats or Republicans are in the majority. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. And with a 2018 like polling error, they'll additionally win Nevada where they currently trail. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. The states Senate seat is currently held by a Republican, but Democratic Lt. Gov. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. It's closer, but they're still ahead. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Each partys seat count in scenarios where it wins the Senate in our Deluxe models 40,000 simulations. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. To see just how much individual races can change the forecast, first try picking different winners in key Senate races (or feel free to skip ahead to key races in the House! This is especially true in the Senate, where Democrats currently have a 70 percent chance of winning in the 2022 FiveThirtyEight midterm election forecast. Each partys seat count in scenarios where it wins the Senate in our Deluxe models 40,000 simulations. And with a 2018 like polling error, they'll additionally win Nevada where they currently trail. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Are Republicans in trouble in the Senate? Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. 1. Based on a scrutiny of the polls in the Utah race (i.e. Furthermore, the well-respected Nate Silver and his website of FiveThirtyEight.com analyzes surveys conducted in every federal race in the country. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. What happens if we have a 2016 or 2020 like polling error? Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Ohio is the type of Senate race that Democrats shouldnt have much business competing in. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. In Alaskas House, Senate and gubernatorial races, its fairly likely that well end up with one Democratic candidate but two or three Republican candidates following the Aug. 16 primaries. As we get closer to the midterms, Galen Druke zooms in on the Senate races in Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. @SophLebo Each partys seat count in scenarios where it wins the Senate in our Deluxe models 40,000 simulations. FiveThirtyEight's predictions for the 2018 Senate elections. Counts of Democratic seats include two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats. Pennsylvania was supposed to be the Democrats insurance policy. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Friday night's much anticipated debate between Senate candidates Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker was a fast-paced affair, and many claims were thrown out by both candidates. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. How much each race matters. quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean) they project Lee has a 93% chance of winning. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Are Republicans in trouble in the Senate? Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Each party's majority chances include scenarios where the Senate is evenly split and that party holds the vice presidency in our presidential forecast. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Each party's majority chances include scenarios where the Senate is evenly split and that party holds the vice presidency in our presidential forecast. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. FiveThirtyEight's predictions for the 2018 Senate elections. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. It's closer, but they're still ahead. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Ohio is the type of Senate race that Democrats shouldnt have much business competing in. Sophia Lebowitz is a video producer at FiveThirtyEight. quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean) they project Lee has a 93% chance of winning. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. FiveThirtyEights 2020 Senate and House models are mostly unchanged from 2018, so the large majority of the methodological detail below will still apply. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. See how each partys forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the Senate have changed over time. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. See how each partys forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the Senate have changed over time. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. @SophLebo Ohio is the type of Senate race that Democrats shouldnt have much business competing in. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Democrats lead in enough states to barely maintain control of the US Senate. To see just how much individual races can change the forecast, first try picking different winners in key Senate races (or feel free to skip ahead to key races in the House! It's closer, but they're still ahead. Friday night's much anticipated debate between Senate candidates Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker was a fast-paced affair, and many claims were thrown out by both candidates. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown.